Quantcast
Channel: Cyclist
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 8819

Giro d'Italia 2018: Who are the favourites and who should you be backing?

$
0
0
Joe Robinson
30 Apr 2018

A breakdown of the favourites to take the pink jersey at the 101st Giro d'Italia

Predicting a winner for a three-week, 3,551km stage race around the unforgiving terrain of Italy should be impossible. Throw in the unpredictable weather and truly anything can happen over these 21 stages.

However, that does not stop us from trying.

The Giro d'Italia is the first Grand Tour of the season and mixes the chaotic nature of Italian cycling with its brutally hard mountains.

The eventual winner of the pink jersey will have usually battled adversity and often be truly the strongest rider in the race.

The Cannibal riding to victory at the 1973 Giro d'Italia, his fourth of five wins

As with many races, the most successful rider of all time at the Giro is Eddy Merckx. With five victories, he is joined by Italians Fausto Coppi and Alfredo Binda as the owner of most pink jerseys.

In recent years, no single rider has managed to dominate proceedings. Only Vincenzo Nibali and Alberto Contador have managed to take home multiple titles in the past 10 editions. 

The most recent victor was Dutch rider Tom Dumoulin. The time triallist-turned-General Classification rider managed to keep in contact with Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Nibali throughout the three weeks before earning enough time on the final day's time trial to take the title.

This year's route is surprisingly thin on the ground when it comes to marquee Italian climbs yet there will still be room for ascents of the Colle delle Finestre, Sestriere and Gran Sasso Italia.

Michael Rogers was the last winner on the mythical Zoncolan in 2014

Above all else will be Stage 14's summit finish upon the fierce Monte Zoncolan. Averaging 11.9 per cent over 10km, the Zoncolan is often muttered as the hardest climb they had ever raced by many ex-professionals.

At points, the gradient reaches 20 per cent with sustained sections of 18 and 16 per cent in the latter half of the climb. It's steep enough to even bring the world's best climbers to an almost standstill. 

Expect the Zoncolan to produce big time gaps between the favourites on GC and even the potentiality of the race being decided on the famous mountain. 

Giro d'Italia 2018: Who are the favourites? 

Will a third consecutive Grand Tour be a step too far for Froome? 

The bookmakers have a clean sweep as to who is favourite for this year's Giro d'Italia, Chris Froome

Despite all the controversy surrounding his adverse analytical finding for salbutamol and the fact his best placing at the Giro was 36th in 2009, Froome is clear favourite to take pink in Rome. 

In the search for a historic third consecutive Grand Tour victory, Froome has surrounded himself with a strong team including Wout Poels and Sergio Henao, and has been riding the race's big climbs all Spring in preparation.

Yet with best odds of 2/1 (BetStars), there is little value in the four-time Tour de France champion and is best avoided.

Sitting next to Froome in the favourites table is defending champion Tom Dumoulin (Team Sunweb). The Dutchman is looking to be the first rider to defend a Giro title since Miguel Indurain in 1993.

Doubts surrounding his ability to survive on the steep gradients of the Zoncolan exist and it's true that his preparation this season has been hampered slightly by stomach problems but you would be foolish to write off the 27-year-old.

Last year he proved his class over three weeks and defied many non-believers when he even managed to out-climb the entire field on the Stage 14 summit finish to Oropa.

Defending champion Dumoulin winning atop the Oropa last year

Currently at 9/4 (Betway), Cyclist would suggest that the man from Maastricht is a safer bet than Froome if you are considering the outright favourites.

If betting on favourites is not your thing, two riders definitely worth considering are Mitchelton-Scott duo Esteban Chaves and Simon Yates.

At 28 and 25-years-old respectively, they are both heading into the peak of their career and stand in good stead for this year's Giro. 

Chaves has performed before in Italy, taking second behind Vincenzo Nibali in 2016. The smiling Colombian's best race victory was also in Italy at the 2016 Il Lombardia which could prove a good omen ahead of Friday's Grande Partenza. 

Sixth at the 2016 Vuelta and seventh at the 2017 Tour, Simon Yates is slowing growing into one of the world's top GC talents. With a podium and stage victory at Paris-Nice back in March we also know he is in good form.

Chaves and Yates can be had at 33/1 (BetVictor) and 40/1 (Betfair) which make for solid each-way flutters. Both riders represent great value for money.

Fabio Aru at 8/1 (Sky Bet) and Miguel Angel Lopez at 7/1 (Marathon Bet) will be hot on the heels of Froome and Dumoulin and should also be considered for pink in three weeks' time. 

Racing on Italian soil has brought success to the Pinot

Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) tends to go well in Italy and his recent win at the Tour of the Alps, ahead of Froome, is testament to that.

Chance your luck at 11/2 (Sky Bet) and you may just be rewarded for your bravery.

Closer to the race it is likely that certain bookmakers will release odds for certain stages, however as of yet they are just offering prices on the overall classification. 

Cyclist takes no responsibility for bets placed or resulting losses. Always remember to gamble responsibly. When the fun stops, stop.


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 8819